ARE SOLUTIONS AVAILABLE FOR THIS DELICATE ENVIRONMENT?
ON ICICLES AND ORANGE JUICE FUTURES
Prediction: Frozen orange juice prices will be exceptionally high later this year.
This prognostication, which is not difficult to believe, is based on the phenomenon that we have witnessed graphically in the news in the last couple of days: Florida oranges festooned with icicles due to an unusually cold winter that we are experiencing. If you are into trading futures, you have probably taken note of this happening.
NO PREDICTIVE VALUE IN SMALL-SCALE CLIMATE CHANGES
Manifestations of such lower-than-normal temperatures are not limited to the southern states but are found in other states as well. The Dakotas, for instance, are seeing record-breaking low temperatures. Also globally, countries like China and Korea are experiencing more than usual snowfalls and lower than average temperatures.
This big chill could make one think that the climatic warming trend has come to an end and temperatures are heading back down. A predictable conclusion drawn from such a perceived major shift is that human activities have nothing to do with climate change and only natural phenomena are to blame.
But, one year’s statistics have no predictive value concerning changes in temperatures and climate and consequences of the same. Climate change is cyclical in nature on small and large scales. Meaningful conclusions and predictions concerning changes in climate and their consequences must be based on larger scales, scales more on the level of decades or even broader.
POLAR THINKING CONDEMNED
Now, back to the issue of what is causing the climate change. Is it human activity or natural phenomena such as changes in ocean temperatures?
The thinking and arguments that we have been subjected to in recent months have too often been disturbingly polar. And, I’m not referring to the north or the south pole and their ice caps. By “polar” I am referring to thinking that tends to hover at one extreme end of an issue or the other.
At one extreme, some say climate change is due solely to human activity. At the other extreme, others argue for natural phenomena alone.
Sara Palin strongly hinted at solely natural causes in this tweet she put up on Twitter in December:
Copenhgen=arrogance of man2think we can change nature’s ways.MUST b good stewards of God’s earth,but arrogant&naive2say man overpwers nature
You may have to read that a couple of times to understand her thinking. I interpret her near-gibberish as supporting the polar position that man’s polluting activities have little or nothing to do with climate change.
Either extreme position, i.e. that climate change is caused solely by man’s activities or solely by natural phenomena, is flawed. Both human activity and natural phenomena are undoubtedly involved.
To say that climate change is solely due to human activity is to say that climate fluctuations, that predate the modern polluting era, ended at the start of our industrial era. Such thinking is nonsensical.
In opposition, saying that human activity has had no effect on observable climate change is equally crazy. It denies the scientifically proven increases in greenhouse effects due to carbon and methane gases that have been increasingly dumped into our atmosphere since the industrial revolution began.
MY POSITION
There are a number of factors contributing to the climate changes that we are all observing and experiencing, not excluding potentially higher orange juice prices. Some of those factors are undoubtedly natural and uncontrollable.
But, other factors have been and remain man’s polluting activities around the world.
And, this human factor can and must be controlled. Nobody knows for sure what would happen if we ignored or denied the problem of increasing global temperatures. But, the predictions of multiple renowned scientists are disturbing to say the least.
FINAL CONCLUSION
If our polluting activities have had and could continue to have any dilatory effect on the climate and on the lives of humans in North America, Bangladesh or the Sahel of Africa, it is in our best interest — and our moral duty — to do what we can to change our behavior and find solutions to clean up our environment.
by Richard Davidian
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